Robotaxi Reality Check - Forget Tesla?

I was reading about Tesla's robotaxi launch, and did more research, as it is an exciting topic 🚀 Let me break it down what's really happening with Tesla's big robotaxi launch and what it means for the future of autonomous ride-sharing.

🚘𝙏𝙚𝙨𝙡𝙖'𝙨 𝘾𝙪𝙧𝙧𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙍𝙤𝙗𝙤𝙩𝙖𝙭𝙞 𝙋𝙤𝙨𝙞𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 🚘

$TSLA (Tesla Motors, Inc.) just launched its first-ever robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, marking a pivotal moment in Elon Musk's decade-long vision. But here's the reality check - we're talking about roughly 10-12 Model Y vehicles operating in a limited geofenced area with safety monitors still on board. That's a far cry from the "millions of robotaxis" promise Musk made back in 2019.

👉While Tesla has achieved impressive milestones with its Full Self-Driving technology - including demonstrations of unsupervised driving at its Fremont factory - the commercial rollout remains cautiously limited. 🪴The $4.20 rides are generating buzz, but analysts warn this is just "the end of the beginning, not the beginning of the end". It is still an early test.

👉Here's where it gets interesting for investors like us. According to UBS projections, Tesla's robotaxi network could break even by 2030 and potentially generate $203 billion in annual revenue by 2040 with $86 billion in post-tax operating profits. That's massive; however, multi-year projections tend to be optimistic, with favorable assumptions. The keyword is "could" 📈

👉ARK Invest is even more bullish, suggesting autonomous ride-hailing could account for 90% of Tesla's business value by 2029, with robotaxis potentially driving 67% of the stock price alone. They give Tesla a 58% chance of launching commercial service in 2025 and 38% in 2026. But again. Cathy Wood is always touting her new purchases, selling her fund.

👉But here's the catch - Tesla's purpose-built Cybercab won't enter volume production until 2026.

𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝘾𝙤𝙢𝙥𝙚𝙩𝙞𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙇𝙖𝙣𝙙𝙨𝙘𝙖𝙥𝙚

👉While Tesla's making headlines, $GOOGL (Alphabet Inc Class A)'s Waymo is already crushing it commercially. Waymo operates fully autonomous robotaxis across multiple cities, completing 250,000 paid rides per week with an estimated $260 million annual revenue. They've logged over 71 million driverless miles compared to Tesla's limited trial.

👉Chinese companies like Baidu's Apollo Go are even further ahead - they've completed over 11 million rides with 1,000+ vehicles operating fully driverless across 15 cities.

👉Tesla's head of AI, Ashok Elluswamy, recently admitted they're "a couple of years" behind Waymo in autonomous driving capabilities. Ouch! 😬

📹𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙎𝙚𝙣𝙨𝙤𝙧 𝘿𝙚𝙗𝙖𝙩𝙚: 𝙏𝙚𝙨𝙡𝙖'𝙨 𝙍𝙞𝙨𝙠𝙮 𝘽𝙚𝙩

👉This is where Tesla's approach gets controversial. While Waymo uses 29 cameras, 5 LiDAR sensors, and 6 radars for redundancy, Tesla relies solely on 8-9 cameras and AI. Musk has dismissed LiDAR as expensive and unnecessary, betting everything on vision-only systems.

🫸Here's the problem - NHTSA is currently investigating 2.4 million Tesla vehicles after crashes involving FSD in low-visibility conditions like sun glare, fog, and dust.

🤨Industry experts worry about Tesla's lack of sensor redundancy. In challenging weather conditions, cameras can fail, where LiDAR and radar provide backup sensing. A YouTube video went viral a few months ago from Mark Rober, demonstrating how the lack of Lidar makes Tesla inferior: www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQJL3htsDyQ

🪙𝙒𝙝𝙖𝙩'𝙨 𝙧𝙚𝙡𝙚𝙫𝙖𝙣𝙩 𝙛𝙤𝙧 𝙮𝙤𝙪 𝙖𝙨 𝙖𝙣 𝙄𝙣𝙫𝙚𝙨𝙩𝙤𝙧?

Tesla's robotaxi launch is undeniably significant - $TSLA (Tesla Motors, Inc.) jumped 9% on the news. But we need to separate hype from reality. Competition is also advancing, while Tesla is catching up.

📈The bull case is compelling: Tesla's manufacturing scale, over-the-air updates, and massive data collection from 1.3 billion FSD miles could eventually create a dominant position. If they nail the technology and navigate regulatory hurdles, the revenue potential is astronomical.

📉The bear case is equally valid: Tesla's camera-only approach faces serious safety questions, they're years behind established competitors, and scaling to commercial viability will take much longer than Musk promises. Any major safety incident could trigger recalls and public backlash.

⏩What's clear is that the robotaxi race is heating up, with $GOOGL (Alphabet Inc Class A), Chinese players like $BIDU (Baidu, Inc.-ADR) leading commercially, while $TSLA (Tesla Motors, Inc.) plays catch-up with flashier headlines but limited real-world deployment.

$UBER (Uber Technologies Inc.) could benefit from the whole war, as it only provides the ride-hailing platform. $NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) and $AMD (Advanced Micro Devices Inc) are making the chips for most solutions. They win either way.

💚 I'm Gabor Fogarasi - I Don't Work for Money, Money Works for Me.

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